Bryan 12/11/03

How do you mean about the Pettite thing being overrated? I'm not sure how much it will help the Astros, and I doubt it'll make much of a difference for the Yankees over the course of the season. But don't you think they might miss him in the playoffs? It has been duly noted though that you are on the record.

Asher 12/12/03

Its not that I think that Pettitte isn't valuable. But he's not THAT valuable. He is the type of guy who is great because he is on a great team. He a) throws strikes, b) is durable, and c) is a lefty, all of which is valuable. But, you could take ANY durable, strike throwing lefty, put him on the Yankees from1995-2003, and he would have had similar success. I have already explained the discrepancy between his ERA and his win totals, indicating that, on a team which features less offense and a less dominant closer (all of a sudden I am giving props to M.Rivera), Andy Pettitte doesn't have as much success. Is he great because of his team, or his is team great because of him? I think the former. For that matter, people are jumping off bridges to talk about how the Yankees are shooting themselves in the foot by not resigning him, and this signals the ends of an era in New York. Yeah, right. I'm sure that the Yankees are freaking out right now at the prospect of their rotation being Mussina, Brown, Contreras, Jon Lieber, and whoever. There are bigger problems at the plate than on the mound.

Plus, I am not convinced that, with the exception of the greats (Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, RJohnson, and, for sake of argument only, Schilling) that free agent pitcher signings go all that well in general. Pettitte is a career Yankee, and now he is going to change teams, ballparks, and leagues, and hope to stay consistent? My buddy Hank pointed out to me yesterday, "He aint gonna win even fifteen in Houston with an ERA over four." Its hard to maintain ANY consistency as a pitcher, much less changing scenes like that. The list of recent free agent pitchers who haven't done fabulously is long: Bartolo Colon, Mike Hampton, Kevin Millwood, Denny Neagle, Jose Lima, Tom Glavine. Sidney Ponson switched teams midyear last season and couldn't keep it going. Fact is, unless you just signed with the Braves, its not that easy to succeed on a new team, especially if you weren't that great in the first place. Unless you are headed for a pitcher friendly ball park, which, as a lefty, he is not. I personally saw Craig Biggio hit two fly balls for homeruns to right field in Minute Maid Park; that ain't a lefty's playground. Bottom Line (New Theory): great pitchers can succeed anywhere, good pitchers are a product of their system. That being said, let's not overlook the fact that the Yankees are losing a good pitcher and gaining a pitcher who has had success as a free agent and has been good with several different teams (Kevin Brown). Brown once played for 4 teams in five years (heard he's a bit of an asshole) and had four straight years of ERA 3.00 or below, with a low of 1.89. Brown is Pettitte's opposite: great pitcher on weak team. Brown, if healthy, should dominate for the Yankees. Pettite's ERA has dipped below 3.87 only twice in eight years; Brown's ERA has been above 3.87 only once since 1991. This is a good swap. On the record. Oh, and by the way, the Yankees should be JUST AS EXCITED about Brown as the Red Sox are about Schilling. Both have been hurt of late, both are old, and Brown has had more success without playing along side one of the games greats.

Asher 12/13/03

Speaking of guys who I am not worried about the possibility of them doing well: I heard Pettite alluded to trying to lure Clemens out of retirement to join the Astros; yeah, right. Clemens definitely would have been mediocre on many teams the last few years.

Asher - 1/14/2004

Runner up for absurdly bad idea of the week: Astros sign Roger Clemens. Prediction: Pettitte and Clemens combine for 20 victories next season. More on that later.

Asher 1/15/04

I could not be less worried about the Clemens signing; if he is part of the rotation, that just means that either Tim Redding or Jeriome Robertson, who both had very good seasons, won't be starting this year. Plus, if Clemens gets hurt or struggles, and they try to replace him with either Redding or Robertson, that just means inconsistency. I think the Astros may be playing around a little too much with a young pitching staff, and it may hurt them. These are not marquee signings, and they don't really improve the team. The Astros have plenty of pitching, they didn't need more.