11/5/2003: A Warning for Andy Pettitte

by Asher B. Chancey

Every year, there is at least one free agent who I think succeeds because of the system he is in, and leaving, while for better money, if going to hurt his career. This is more obvious in football, where players routinely leave the scene of their professional success and end up not as good, with the most obvious case ebing Dana Stubblefield who, after a great season in SF, went to Wash, sucked, and then returned to SF and was solid again.

This is also true in baseball, however. For example, if Tom Glavine had asked me for my opinion before signing with the Mets, I would have never EVER recommended that he leave Leo Mazzone's side. Mike Hampton effectly ruined his career by signing with the Rockies. Speaking of the Rockies, any fool who would leave the Rockies deserves what he gets. This means you, Vinny Castilla.

Anyway, My first pick for "it might be better to stay where you are, even for less money" of this baseball off-season is Andy Pettitte. Let's have a look at Mr. Pettitte's career thus far.

1995	NYY	31	26	3	0	175.0	183	86	81	15	63	114	12	9	0	0	4.17
1996	NYY	35	34	2	0	221.0	229	105	95	23	72	162	21	8	0	0	3.87
1997	NYY	35	35	4	1	240.1	233	86	77	7	65	166	18	7	0	0	2.88
1998	NYY	33	32	5	0	216.1	226	110	102	20	87	146	16	11	0	0	4.24
1999	NYY	31	31	0	0	191.2	216	105	100	20	89	121	14	11	0	0	4.70
2000	NYY	32	32	3	1	204.2	219	111	99	17	80	125	19	9	0	0	4.35
2001	NYY	31	31	2	0	200.2	224	103	89	14	41	164	15	10	0	0	3.99
2002	NYY	22	22	3	1	134.2	144	58	49	6	32	97	13	5	0	0	3.28
2003	NYY	33	33	1	0	208.1	227	109	93	21	50	180	21	8	0	0	4.02
Total	--	283	276	23	3	1792.2	1901	873	785	143	579	1275	149	78	0	0	3.94

Let's see, where to start. How about, 2003: 21-8 with a 4.02 ERA. Guess what, he ain't gonna gonna win 20 games with an ERA over 4 on too many teams. How about 2000, when he went 19-9 with a 4.35 ERA? And 1999, when his ERA was closer to 5 than to 4, and he still had a winning record? His best seasons, 1997 and 2002, were five years apart. That is not the mark of a great pitcher, that is the mark of a solid pitcher who has benefitted from a lot of run support. Don't get me wrong, Andy was Dandy in 2003, despite his ERA, as his walks were down and his K's were up, but if you're not playing for the Yankees next year, and you don't have one of the league's finest lineups supporting you, and you don't have the most well paid bullpen in the league finishing your games, you don't win 21 games with a 4+ ERA. We've already discussed the exploits of the Yankee's system in terms of cradling Roger Clemens to a 20-3 record in 2001 despite his 3.51 ERA. Pedro Martinez had a 2.26 ERA the year after that, and managed to lose one more game than Clemens at 20-4. I wonder how Pettitte will fair when he is not in the Yankees system anymore and his new team can only score three runs a game to support him. Not well I think.

So go ahead, Andy Pettitte, and sign with another team. Just remember that you've been warned.